CEEW Study Claims India’s Vehicle Population Is Likely To Double By 2050

As per a new research lead by the Council On Energy, Environment, And Water (CEEW), India’s vehicle population is expected to surge from 226 million to nearly 500 million by 2050. Two-wheelers will continue to occupy the lion share of this massive growth, representing 70 per cent of all vehicles with over 350 million units projected. Similarly, private cars are expected to triple reaching nearly 90 million units. These projections are based on the current rate of economic and demographic expansion through the mid century. 

This is the first of its kind district level assessment of India’s vehicle inventory taking into account ownership costs, and fuel requirement The study further found that Northern and Western regions of the country will register the most substantial growth. Uttar Pradesh alone is expected to house over 90 million vehicles, followed by Bihar, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat. Major urban centres like Delhi, Bengaluru, Thane, Pune and Ahmedabad will collectively witness the most vehicle concentration, with 10 per cent of India’s projected vehicle stock. 

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The study further predicts that electric vehicles in the future will become more popular, especially in the two and three-wheeler segment, primarily due to its low total cost of ownership. However, electric heavy goods vehicles will remain costlier than diesel, CNG, or LNG alternatives. The latter is projected will remain the most economical option for buses and trucks until 2040 at least. Without accelerated electrification, diesel will dominate India's transport energy consumption into the 2040s. Diesel demand would peak only by 2047, whilst petrol demand could plateau around 2032.

The study also recommends strengthening vehicle registration data, improving EV affordability through battery financing schemes, and exploring alternative revenue models as fuel tax income declines beyond the 2040s. Mapping parking infrastructure, particularly private residential facilities, can identify households most likely to adopt EVs due to overnight charging capabilities. Lastly, the research emphasises the need for comparative public trials across different fuel types and vehicle segments to generate reliable performance, cost, and emissions data.