Chinese Carmakers To Surpass Japanese Counterparts In 2025: Report

Chinese carmakers have solidified their footprints across the globe and results speak for themselves. According to a report by Nikkei Asia, Chinese automakers are expected to outsell their Japanese counterparts worldwide in 2025, marking China’s first lead in annual global vehicle sales after more than two decades of Japanese dominance.

The report draws on industry data available up to November 2025. Based on automaker disclosures and estimates by S&P Global Mobility, it forecasts that Chinese manufacturers will sell around 27 million vehicles globally in 2025, compared with just under 25 million units for Japanese automakers.

China’s Domestic Market Drives Around 70% of Sales

The data involves passenger and commercial vehicles sold in China as well as overseas during the above-mentioned period. Sales attribution is determined by company ownership and brand nationality, with equal-share joint ventures accounted for based on the brand under which the vehicles are sold. The domestic car market in China accounts for roughly 70 percent of total sales by Chinese automakers.

Moreover, new energy vehicles including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), account for nearly 60 percent of passenger vehicle sales in China. Industry reports suggest that BYD and Geely have broken into the global top ten automakers by sales in 2025, while Chery has emerged as one of China’s leading exporters, recording strong growth in overseas markets.

Sales in Southeast Asian markets have been traditionally dominated by Japanese manufacturers — are projected to increase significantly, with Chinese brands expected to sell around 500,000 units. In Europe, sales by Chinese automakers are forecast to reach approximately 2.3 million units, despite existing import tariffs, as export volumes include plug-in hybrid models that are exempt from additional duties.

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Reports have indicated decline in car sales by Japanese car manufacturers across the globe in 2025, including key markets like the United States. Also, market share for Japanese brands in China has gradually declined with local automakers gaining more presence. Global car sales for Japanese carmakers peaked in 2018 with nearly 30 million vehicles sold. That said, since this report is based on indicative data, it will be premature to draw a conclusion based on the same.